Saturday, December 31, 2011

Defending D'Antoni


I grew up pushin snowflake to [cats] who were pro-base. The stress’ll take a young [cat] and give him an old face.
-Shawn Carter


The current consensus is that Mike D’Antoni’s days as a coach of the Knickerbockers are numbered. From the beginning, D’Antoni has been facing an uphill battle because he was pushing offense in a city that appreciates defense and toughness. If the Knicks lose to the Kings on Saturday night, the cries for D’Antoni’s head will be the loudest they have ever been, and rightfully so, because for the first time in four years the Knicks are actually expected to be good.

Last year the Knicks finished over .500 for the first time since the 2000-2001 season. Let that sink in. A decade of losing records, a ten year span in which every team in the NBA except the Knicks finished with a winning record at least once. Look it up. The Clippers had 47 wins in 2005-2006. The Bobcats, believe it or not, had 44 wins two years ago. That Game 5 loss against the Raptors was a long time ago. Back then Shaggy was cranking out number one hits, William Peterson wasn't really famous yet for CSI (well, he still isn't famous because I had to look up his name on IMDB), and we still had a year before knowing that you could get red tops from an industrious youth named Bodie. So what does Mike D’Antoni get for ending a decade of futility? It certainly didn’t get him a contract extension. Instead it gives him the wonderful opportunity to read about how he doesn’t know how to coach defense, or that he is just keeping the seat warm for Phil Jackson.

This a good time for an important caveat. Phil Jackson is a better coach than D'Antoni and I'd fire D'Antoni if Phil Jackson wanted the job. (Ditto for Jeff Van Gundy because everyone loves JVG, but I don’t think he works for the Knicks again as long as Jimmy Boy is in charge). Jackson is probably the greatest NBA coach of all time, and if he wanted to wear all eleven of his rings at once he would need to be in sandals (unless he and Jenny are into some freaky stuff and the eleventh ring is one for the dong). But I don’t know what the Zen Master wants to do, and it is highly doubtful anyone who does know him can predict what he is going to do. It’s too risky to put all of the eggs in Phil Jax’s basket. And for the Knicks it’s foolish because they have one of the best coaches in the NBA. So, if you think Phil Jackson is a better coach than Mike D’Antoni, please stop reading because I agree.

Not only is Big Chief Triangle the GOAT in NBA circles, he also has earned the important distinction of being a defensive-minded coach. As the old maxim goes defense wins championships, and Phil has eleven rings so he must be a great defensive coach. While Jackson is certainly a good defensive coach, he really is a better offensive coach. According to Basketball Reference’s offensive and defensive ratings, Phil Jackson’s eleven championship teams ranked 6th defensively on average and about 3rd on average offensively. Of course being in the top six in defense is pretty damn good, but being in the top three on offense is obviously better. There is an extreme outlier on defense and an outlier on offense, but even after removing those two, it is clear that Jackson’s teams were well balanced teams that excelled more on offense than defense.

The Showtime Lakers coached by future defensive master and backstabber, Pat Riley, were less balanced. Ironically, Riley is probably the reason everyone thinks the Knicks need to be a defensive team. This ignores that Riley probably became a defensive coach because he had to. He couldn't run Showtime with Doc Rivers flanked by Starks and Charles Smith on the wings. Those Lakers teams won five championships in nine years by finishing first three times and second twice in offense while being average on defense in a 23 team league. One year they finished tenth and in two of those years they finished ninth, which translates to 12th or 13th in a 30 team league. Coincidentally, that's not too far off what D'Antoni was able to accomplish during his four years in Phoenix. They finished first twice and second twice in offensive rating, and 13th, 16th twice, and 17th in defensive rating. D'Antoni's Suns teams and the Showtime Lakers have plenty of differences, but the larger point is that teams can win championships by being a great offensive team and an average defensive team. The NFL is outgrowing the myth that defense wins championships as many of the best teams are great offensive teams (similarly the myth of running the ball in the playoffs is flying out the window). The NBA is taking longer because many of the recent champions like the Spurs, Pistons, and Celtics weren't good on offense.

Without so much bad luck and Robert Sarver's penny pinching, the D'Antoni Suns probably would have won a championship. The first full SSOL year was 2004-2005 and the Suns led the NBA with 62 victories. They ended up losing to the eventual champion Spurs in a five game Western Conference finals, but lost the first two while Jim Jackson started for the injured Joe Johnson. In the five games against the Spurs a 22- year- old Amar'e Stoudemire averaged 37 ppg against Tim Duncan who was in his defensive prime (a lot of it was probably strategic, as the Spurs wanted to keep Nash out of the lane, but 37 points is 37 points). Expectations were high for the Suns and for Amar'e, but as everyone knows Amar'e missed all but three games with a knee injury the following year, the Hawks overpaid for Joe Johnson the first time, and the team traded their first rounder and Quentin Richardson to the Knicks (after selling the 7th pick in the previous year to the Bulls, who drafted Luol Deng).

Even after replacing 3/5 of their starting lineup, the Suns were able to make the Western Conference finals again. This time though, they lost to the Mavs in six games, and used a seven man rotation of Steve Nash, Shawn Marion, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, Tim Thomas (yes, that Tim Thomas), Leandro Barbosa, and James Jones, with a "break glass in case of emergency" Eddie House sprinkled in. Seriously, how many coaches could do that? Either Raja Bell or Boris Diaw is the third banana, and Tim Thomas was an important piece and starter. The starting frontline was Marion, Diaw, and Thomas. Even Kwame Brown could (and did) score against that front line. The offseason was more of the same as the Suns sold two first rounders including the 21st pick to the Celtics who drafted Rajon Rondo!

The 2006-2007 Suns was probably the best SSOL team, but the interweb says that they lost in the second round to the eventual champion Spurs in six games. That was the year that Robert Horry hip checked Steve Nash into the scorer's table, and Amar'e and Boris Diaw stepped off the bench and onto the court in defense of their team mate during the altercation. Under the ridiculously stupid NBA rule both were suspended for the pivotal Game 5 in Phoenix and the Suns were forced to use six players in a blowout. The next offseason they gave the Sonics two first round picks to take on Kurt Thomas' contract, and then blew it up in February by trading Marion for Shaq. That team lost in the first round to the Spurs, but lost the first game after Tim Duncan hit a crucial fourth quarter three to tie the game.

Add it all up and it's a pretty good run. The SSOL Suns made the playoffs every year, lost twice in the Conference Finals, and average 58 wins over four years. D'Antoni had rightfully earned a reputation as one of the best coaches in the NBA, but he was a flawed coach who didn't practice defense enough and Phoenix allowed him to leave. Miraculously the Knicks were able to get a coach who averaged more wins over four years than the franchise was able to win in a single season since Bill Clinton was president. That's pretty amazing, and it's even more amazing because it was the 1992-93 season and George H.W. Bush was president when the season started. Fans were excited to get an accomplished coach like D'Antoni, but they probably weren't excited enough. True, he never won a championship in Phoenix, but the list of current NBA coaches who have won a championship is Greg Poppovich, Rick Carlisle, and Doc Rivers (and the latter two were given the opportunity for some growing pains). 58 wins per season and two conference finals despite some real bad luck and a crappy owner makes for an elite coach.

It was understood that the first two years of D'Antoni's four year deal would be transition years as the team purged bad contracts to make a run at the vaunted 2010 free agent class. In D'Antoni's first year with the Knicks, he coached Chris Duhon, Nate Robinson, David Lee, Al Harrington, Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson, and Jared Jeffries to 32 wins. Lee and Chandler are good players, Al Harrington is a nice bench player, and Jared Jeffries is a story for another day, but Duhon and Richardson can't crack the Magic rotation, and Nate is out the league and might be for a while. In the words of Homer Simpson, “I'll take the crab juice.” The following year was more of the same as the Knicks won 28 games with a couple of fourth/fifth bananas and a litany of vagabonds.

So last year was supposed to be the reward for D'Antoni's work the first two years. He could have signed with Chicago to coach Derrick Rose, but he turned them down to come to the Knicks. Of course the Knicks struck out in free agency and settled for plan H – Amar'e Stoudemire and Raymond Felton. Not bad, but not a homerun either. The current team is built around the frontline of Amar'e, Melo, and Chandler. A frontline that is definitely better than the Marion, Diaw, Tim Thomas frontline that made a Conference Finals. A frontline that may contend for a championship, but is probably a year away because of a mixed and matched backcourt. Unfortunately, D'Antoni might not be around to coach a fifth year because fans/talking heads think a defensive coach is needed.

Does D'Antoni need to improve the Knicks 23rd ranking in Defense last year? Yes, a thousand times yes. Does he also need to improve the Knicks 7th ranking in Offense? The answer is also yes. This is not an ideal roster because Amar'e and Melo are not the passers that LeBron and Wade are, and Toney Douglas starts at point guard. Whoever the point guard ends up being this year or next year, he won't be as good as Steve Nash at his peak. D'Antoni will have to adjust and if he is given a fair chance, he will. At the end of the day he will win with offense first, and there is nothing wrong with that.

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